Economic Analysis (Mid Year analysis)

As can be seen, oil price has been steadily falling. This may prompt a rally in Airline stocks, Transportation related, and industry related. So, watch out for AirAsia, MAS, Maybulk, Coastal Contracts etc. Be forewarned that an attack on Iran or any rumor may cause investments to be shaky. To trade with caution.

During this turbulent period (euro crisis!), investors rushing for safe haven have prompted a rally in the USD index. This run-up might be short-run only. Remember that the US debt problem is a big big problem. This rally could also be related to the effect of the coming November presidential elections.
Strong USD (good for export), and weak oil (lower cost of production) should prompt a rally in Asian stock market which is mainly export oriented.

As always, I will take Gold as a benchmark. Prices have been trading steadily, showing that investors are very aware of the global economic condition. Therefore, all things withholding, the current rally in USD, and drop in oil prices might just be temporary. I don't forsee investors dumping gold to chase the market, as of now.

-Gold still trading above support line-

To summarize, short term trade can be placed on MAS, AirAsia, Coastal Contracts, Maybulk, and construction related counters (Gamuda, MMC, etc)

Do note that short term means the period between June and August. Conditions may change anytime. However, these companies are currently trading at relatively cheap levels, which should serve to mitigate potential downside risks.  

MK Land

Something to consider. MK Land has improved earnings, and a high NTA. It's also relatively cheap, trading at quite a low as can be seen on the chart.

MACD and RSI seems to be low, and recovering. I'd say this is a safe bet because of the high break-up value of the company, but the stock price might remain stagnant for sometime. Perhaps an investment idea to consider.

As of now, GAMUDA is still trading very stably, and it refuses to trade up. Heavy manipulation going on.
Lets hope once enough collection is done, it will move up to at least 3.80. Might happen in the next couple of days.

Aglobal (Purely Technical Viewpoint)

From a purely technical view point, Aglobal should be a buy now. MACD recovering, RSI at lowest point, and set to recover.

Possibly the best punts you can get

Look out for MMC. It's a relatively good punt with stable price. Do also note that the upcoming listing of Gas Malaysia might prompt a price rally for MMC. Aim for the warrants if you want to leverage gains. Again be mindful that as of this moment, FTSE is down over 100 points.

Gamuda Berhad (Announcement)

Gamuda and MMC finally announced their JV company today. This should spur good news, on top of the big chunk of share acquisitions by EPF lately of these two companies.
Gamuda is trading in range lately, and should be monitored closely to determine the possible trend. There's a tendency for upward bias in this case.

As for RA, it has been trading at the stable region of 8 sen. This is a good price to re-enter.

Risk-off Period (Mid-week Thoughts)

So it seems things are just becoming worst. US dollars continue strengthening, leaving Silver and Gold lagging behind the race. If you are smart, you'd start buying some shiny commodity now perhaps letting up to 10% or 20% of your portfolio be holdings in Gold and Silver. Fundamentally speaking, if Greece does leave EU, the commodity prices should once again spike as more money seek a tangible and safe investment. The US dollar is a not a safe haven. .

One thing should not come as a surprise is Gamuda is down. Recently update announcements show a lot of buying by funds. Infact, today's selling is very light volume. Perhaps done to get panic sellers to dump. Gamuda-WD should be worthwhile to own right now. Again, stay alert to see if Gamuda is still falling. As of now, I think it has hit a support line.

Nevertheless, Gamuda-CS still has a healthy buying appetite at 2 sen.

Another stock to watch out for would be MMC. It has went down, but closed just a mere 3 sen down. Upcoming Gas Malaysia listing should benefit it. MMC, you can either punt the warrants or buy the shares. Most are putting target price at $3.50. Before making your bets, please remember now is risk-off period. Don't bet the boat.

Talking about betting the boat, RA followers, RA's at 8 sen now. Good time to load up and average down. With the telco business booming, there's no indication that results this quarter can be that bad. If it turns out lower than expected, I would continue my buying at a lower price if it drops. If it turns up good, we might see the price once again trading at at least $0.12 to $0.15 range. Though I'm expecting with more news, we can easily see $1.00 soon enough.

Risk-Off Period

Good day all. Hope you survived the onslaught of the market today. 

During this risk-off period, if you are playing the foreign exchange, you probably made tons. Gamuda made it through (up today!) with heavy buying. There's a possibility of the candlesticks breaking the Bollinger band, heading upwards.

On that note of risk-off period, it's time to perhaps long some gold and silver. Till then, stay tuned, and happy speculating!

Penny Stock Summary (11th May 2012)

Good weekend all!

This week I speculated a little into DVM. Particularly tempted due to the announcement that big block of shares has been acquired by an institutional investor/speculator. Whether or not game has ended, am not sure. But I'm already out on the announcement they sold off some shares. 

I also speculated in FOCUS, as I expected some major announcement for the overwhelming trading volume on Thursday. It didnt happen, and price was dropping from weak buying and moderately heavy selling. Sold it today. Price closed at 15 sen. 

Overall, I'm still confident in RA, though it hit a low of 9 sen today. I'm still advocating to collect, and average down if you can. This is by no means watered down confidence in the company. Collecting when the market is overreacting is the best given the current situation. Hold for longer term. Even buy the warrants as it will give tremendous value. Quarterly report will be out this month. So, watch out!

As for Gamuda-CS it fell to 2.5sen, and closed at 3 sen. Still healthy buying, considering it's still cheaply priced compared to other warrants which are close to exercise price. Most are priced at 4 to 5 sen range.
Doing that comparison is of course ain't good enough for me. Anyway, my justification was in previous posts. Construction sector is overweight, and there's active transactions on Gamuda mother shares. Play cautiously.
Good luck! 

DVM

Another short update:

Today Gamuda dropped 3 sen. Again, big blocks of shares exchanging hands before market closed. Doesn't seem like sell-down activity. Primarily because big buy queues suddenly appeared to take up the sell order.

On the other hand, DVM seems to continue to have buying interests. It was reported that Citigroup bought 10 mil shares a couple days ago? Watch closely for possible speculative activities.

Speculative Penny Stocks

Short update:

Today, Gamuda-CS was actively traded once again, together with the Gamuda mother share. Before close, a big sell queue of 1 million shares was placed. We shall see more tomorrow.

In the meantime, I shall recommend Dvm, Extol and Vis be looked into. All these are cheap penny stocks with recent announcements and developments.

Gamuda-CS (part 2 update)

Continued update on Gamuda-CS,

Price has since went up from 3 to 4 sen. (up 33%). You can continue loading up, or choose to watch. Either way, remember to manage your risks.

The chart shows the mother shares (GAMUDA) and possible upward momentum signals. 

Also, if you track latest news, 

April 24th 2012 

MMC Gamuda to buy six boring machines for RM360mil

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/4/24/business/11159537&sec=business

May 4th 2012

Pasar Seni MRT station gets rolling

http://www.nst.com.my/streets/central/pasar-seni-mrt-station-gets-rolling-1.80622

I'm expecting more news to come so solidify Gamuda's upward trend. Stay tuned. 

Gamuda CS / Gamuda

Good day.

Let me bring your attention to Gamuda. As you might know, Gamuda and MMC has received contracts worth almost RM 9 billion and the price has yet to reflect fairly. On the day of the announcement, the price did spike, but the following day it again went down. There's obvious price manipulation here. Anyhow, I'm expecting Gamuda to go up, as Research houses are recommending a buy. This is followed by substantial buying from EPF (Employee Provident Fund).




The chart shows a previous high of 3.90 which will be the resistance line. After that is broken, it should reach for 4.20. Conservative investors should stop here. If you are a speculator, consider buying Gamuda-CS, a warrant which is bank issued. Exercise price is 3.60. As of today, the mother share closed at 3.60.
The warrant itself is selling at 3 sen, which is at a substantial discount compared to other warrants in the market.




Should Gamuda reach the target price of 4.20, this should easily value Gamuda-CS at 12 sen +/-
Again, speculate wisely.