Beginner's Guide to Investing Silver

1. Why Invest in Silver?

There are many reasons as to why one should consider making silver a major investment in his/her portfolio. The primary reason is to fight inflation, caused by the out of control money printing. Inflation is explained as the price of goods becoming more expensive. But a better way to describe inflation would be the price of good becoming expensive due to the continuous devaluation of currency. As you might understand from economics 101, the market is governed by the law of supply and demand. 
When there's more paper money (supply has increased), it will cause a decrease in its purchasing value. So, your money basically becomes toilet paper!




One might ask, so if I want to beat inflation, why not I invest in the stock market? While investing the stock market might be a good idea, the case of rapid inflation or hyperinflation would cause your money to be worthless. The stock market might go up, as the result of more money printed, but your purchasing value could have been wiped out completely. Thus a RM1.00 stock going up to RM100 due to hyperinflation might result in you being a millionaire, but a million could perhaps only get you a loaf of bread. While owning Silver or the physical precious metal, could help you pay for more than a loaf of bread. Also, bear in mind that the current shaky condition of many banks should serve as a reminder that your paper assets might not be safe! You could hold millions of ringgits worth of stocks, but if your brokerage goes bust.... 

Thus, above are the arguments for owning the REAL STUFF...the metal. Anyhow, more sophisticated investors can hold both the paper asset, investing in Exchange Traded Funds or SLVs, and also hold the physical metal itself in a safe.

#ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) such as the SLVs invest in Silver Mining or Silver-related companies, that together create basket of investments. It's like buying a mutual fund, but with the specific exposure in mind: to capture the gains in the upward movement of Silver prices. 




So, all talk but nothing else should be boring up till now... I highly regard these videos as a MUST WATCH:

Watch in order: 

a. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5VNAEmmBQM
b. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj2s6vzErqY


Why should I listen to him? What are his credentials?
Because he saw it coming. Below video should summarize it up

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAQmXaJEc7k
 
Here are some further respected people of the community that you should check out, if you are interested in further educating yourself:

David Morgan http://www.silver-investor.com/
Gerald Celente Trends Journal
Peter Schiff

You can Youtube them all... and listen to their views about where the market is going as a whole.
Additionally you can checkout TV programmes on Youtube, such as #Capital Account 


2. I'm sort of Half-Convinced. So what now?

You might want to consider taking action now, while silver prices are still low. I bought at $27/oz (ounce) region, and am still buying. It's not too late to buy into Silver, and as always, you can wait for a lower price, but in the meantime, stack up some first! By using the averaging technique, you could over a period of time lower your investment cost! Personally, as long as Silver is below $50, I still consider it cheap! And unless there's a significant change in government policy of unscrupulous money printing, I will continue buying more. So, you can buy Silver in primarily 2 forms:

a. PHYSICAL BULLION OR COINS :::Comes commonly in a bar or coin form, weighing 1oz or 31g. It also comes in 2oz, 5oz, 10oz or more, depending on mints:::

Feel free to checkout the sellers, but don't take it as a recommendation from me. I have bought from some, and you can check them out too.

SilverforMalaysia.com
Merlip.lot.my
Nubex.com.my

So far these 3 sellers are selling at less cut-throat prices. Bear in mind that Physical bullions do carry a certain amount of premium above spot price. 

#Spot price = Price that is quoted live on the boards, such as Kitco.com. Btw, Kitco does have this live app you can download onto your computer.
Also checkout Netdania for apps for your android or apple phones. 


When you browse through the products, please bear in mind that bars are always cheaper than coins due to import tax. Some mints are going to charge more than others, so if you are in purely for investment purpose, please get only the bars such as Morgans, Scottsdale, OPMs etc. Products such as the American Eagle would also make a good investment if you dont mind paying more. Some of the benefits of owning the American Eagle would be ease of recognition. In a post apocalypse world, people would readily accept it. Also, some countries have laws on importing precious metals. In some countries, the American Eagle is looked upon as purely money, and thus you would have no problem bringing in 500oz of silver, as it only represent a face value of US$500. While silver bars which represent 500oz, might get you in abit of trouble!


American Eagle

Some might even love collecting numismatic coins, which are often priced a lot more above the spot price of silver. The prices differ and are usually attributed to amount minted, year minted, rarity, condition, etc. Investing in numis require much more study, but could pay off really well...such as those who held on to Chinese Pandas. It can be your side thing, but the best bet is still investing and buying coins or bars as cheap or as near as possible to the spot price. 


Chinese Panda

b. PAPER SILVER :::Is like owning a stock; you don't hold the physical metal:::

You can also opt to invest in paper Silver, though I highly not recommend due to my earlier fears of "counter-party" risks. However, I still must educate you on how to do it. As of my knowledge now, only Maybank offers Silver Accounts. You can easily google this up or drop by the Maybank branch to enquire about this. They are selling the investments on per gram basis. 

If you are more of a trader type of person, or simply just wanna try your hands on trading, I highly recommend FXCM. 
Easy to register, and easy to deposit using even your debit card. 

Link: http://www.forexmicrolot.com/

Note of caution: Please beware that your investment can be easily wiped out due to volatility. Make sure your account is well funded, as per pip can cost a minimum of US$0.50. That said, I recommend you checking it out only, and not trading it.

3. Final thoughts

A good price to enter would be between $26.50/oz to $35/oz
But who's to say anything about the best price? An investor should enter precious metals with the first thought in mind: to preserve his/her wealth
But, silver does have the ability to not only preserve, but multiply wealth. Even so, do invest with a certain amount of awareness. Perhaps a good way to comfort yourself is that Silver and Gold is highly manipulated, due to unlimited printing of the US Dollar. One should not be worried too much about the price, but rather maintain the mindset that you are protecting your wealth. Do it before it's too late!

Solving money problems with higher pay?

Most of us have the understanding that higher pay would solve almost any money problems we have. My readers would have to come to a rude awakening! 

First off, let's see how much of your basic salary goes to taxes and inflation. 

Inflation 5% per year (Official figures are around 2%)

Consumption tax 6%

Service tax 10%

Income tax 7-24%

Total tax per year: MINIMUM 28%

Staggering isn't it? ONE THIRD YOUR INCOME GONE~ POOF! 

So, the problem isn't with earning more, as you can understand, earning more puts you at a significant disadvantage as well...MORE TAXES! 

How then to reduce your expenses? Firstly, cut down your expenses in fancy eat-outs and even in franchise chains. that should cut your consumption tax and service tax expenditure. 

To fight inflation, you have to start protecting your income. No, not by saving your money. You should own PRECIOUS METALS. If inflation is 5% per year on a good year, your money in the bank (after returning 2% a year in interest) is reducing at a rate of 3% per year. In about 30 or so years, you money is gone..POOF~! Mind you, that's on a good year. 

You do your own maths: Eating out has been becoming more and more expensive! Even if the price doesn't change, the portion does! Now, what happens in the scenario that our subsidies are no longer sustainable? I bet inflation would soar wildly! We often forget that in Malaysia the subsidies are a blessing in disguise that actually keep our inflation level LOW! As oil prices SOAR thanks to global unrest, and unlimited money printing, inflation of 10 to 20% per year is just around the corner. Imagine your hard-earned savings gone...in just 5 years! 

So, dear friends...please be prepared!

Inflation in Malaysia

Inflation seems to be creeping, and catching with our daily expenses here in Malaysia.
Perhaps it ain't that bad since the Government is subsidizing most of our basic consumption like gasoline, and basic food necessities. But don't for a second think this might go on forever. The continuous printing of money by the U.S. Federal Reserve would only continue to lower the value of our currency back here in Malaysia.

Time to start protecting ourselves.

Malaysia Airlines (MAS)

MAS at the current price appears to be a good buy. Price has been sustainable at the RM1.00 level, with heavy collection spotted. Better financial results on the horizon perhaps?

Either way they should be set for take-off, as MAS has secured financing to purchase more aircraft with the help of the MOF. Comparing MAS versus AirAsia, I should say that MAS is still the better bet, as it has the official government "stamp of approval" and has little impediments when it comes to raising debt. Pension funds happily subscribed to its bonds, while I highly doubt that the Malaysian Government would bail-out AirAsia if it were to run into any troubles.

Reality is, airlines are a money-losing business. Profits? Sure! Just a mere shuffling around of numbers and figures. This business carries heavy debt, and thus the business is highly leveraged. You don't need me to tell you of the ill effects of high leverage in this type of business environment don't you?

Either way, my money's on MAS.

Property Market in Malaysia (1)

IMO Malaysian Property Mart is overvalued especially in around Klang valley. When you look at the median income vs property prices, many agree this is not sustainable. Further more, please have in mind that the high prices are only sustainable as long as financing is available for such high valued properties, and are dependent very much on buyers being able to service their loans. So, when you see an average property around Klang valley being priced around RM500,000 at least, and with an average median income of RM2,500, In my humble opinion, it is not sustainable. Even if you have to pay RM1,000 every month (RM12,000 a yr), 50 years of repayment is more like it if you take into account interests. Not surprised that banks are beginning to offer multi-generational loans that allow the son to take on payment after his parents pass on. Property prices have to come down at least half to make it even feasible for purchase. The question that you should ask is when will people start losing their jobs and not being able to service their loans? People spending the way they do today on cars, and houses, and even on entertainment, it is no surprise that they are living from paycheck to paycheck. Also not to forget, properties though many are freehold, if you dont keep up the payment to the bank, you're toasted.

Big companies are hiring lesser and lesser and if not for government spending into megabillion-ringgit projects, I highly doubt all these are sustainable. Bear in mind as well, that all these borrowing and spending on big projects would eventually come down upon the rakyat in terms of higher taxes in years to come.How long more can our natural resources sustain our spending binge? 

DRBHCOM (update)

So, the show begins!
DRBHICOM will be selling Uni Asia, its stakes should be fairly valued around RM250 million.

Next, I forsee the moving of Proton's assembly to it's under-utilized Tanjung Malim plant, where coincidentally it wants to invest RM1 billion to develop Proton City.

That said, solving the problem of plant under-utilisation is currently still a thorn on DRB's side. Moving current assembly from it's plant in Glenmarie, Shah Alam should be a good thing. Besides, we can look forward further for it to re-develop Proton's valuable land parcel in Glenmarie. By some estimates, should the parcel of land be developed, it should have a GDV (Gross Development Value) of at least RM10 billion.

So you see, how valuable the PROTON deal was? TP for DRBHICOM should be retained at RM4.00 for now. Though I forsee at least a humble RM5.00 in the near future.

Stocks to watch

Stocks to watch on Friday, and comings weeks:

DRBHCOM
GAMUDA
DIALOG

-Currently, a lot of collection has taken place. Might be on the verge of a breakout. I personally like Gamuda warrants priced around 1.00+
-DRBHCOM bank issued warrants could be quite a good value bet too.
-Dialog in the meantime, could be a good medium term buy.

From now on....things will only get more difficult

It's getting harder and harder to guess the direction of the market.
For now, I'm still piling hopes on DRBHCOM. I think the worst could be over. Selling should stop anytime now.
Hang on...

A possible crash coming?

Hope you guys had a wonderful weekend so far. Olympics has been fun, and one might say a much needed distraction from the current economic turmoil we've been experiencing. I do want to point out that prior to the '29 crash, bank profits were sky high, and the market was rallying to new highs. Does this all seem so familiar today? If there is something we can learn from history, is that politicians or (humans) never learn.

Speculations were rife then- bankers speculating with customers' money, just like today. That was what caused the Glass-Steagall Act to be enacted. The way the market moves depends on government policies, which ain't lookin' good if you asked me. More restrictions, and more overspending is on the way. In the end, Big Brother doesn't seem to care for the long term, as they are just kicking the can down the road. How long more can this last?

DRBHCOM (Update 3)

Well, the sell-down was an unexpected one. I would advise warrant holders to cut short their losses, or sell half at least. Mother shares remain a HOLD. This company has tremendous value, and I can forsee more news to come soon, be it for Property Development, Defense or Proton/Lotus related.

Tread Carefully

Dow Jones Index and other major stock markets have been falling like a stone starting Monday. It is not all unexpected. Punters, Speculators and Investors beware. Cut your losses short, and don't do overleveraged bets. Perhaps time to revisit the acquisition of precious metals?

DRBHICOM (update 2)

Hope you guys had a wondereful weekend!

Now, I know many are wondering if the uptrend in DRB is sustainable? Next week may see a drop in KLCI index due to European issues. 

I personally think that DRB will see an uptrend, and prices will hit previous high pretty soon. There's probably an upside of RM1.00 considering previous movements. My TP is RM3.50-3.70

Again is only from my analysis of the charts and candlesticks. 

Have fun, peeps! 

MKLAND (update)

It has been almost 2 months since I brought up MKLAND. Today, it is up with active trading. Perhaps it's time for the share price to reflect its NTA per share of 87 sen? It's not uncommon for many property companies in Malaysia to reflect poorly upon its real share value. Another one of them would be CHHB (Country Heights Holdings Berhad), which has an NTA per share of 2.65, and mostly trading around RM1.00 and below.  People have been chasing properties as investments but shares of companies with substantial landbanks and properties aren't up. Time for a change in investment direction??

DRBHICOM (update)

According to technicals, DRBHICOM should succumb to upward pressure by next week onwards. Whether or not it turns out to be true depends on the market. With Dow Jones about to breach 13,000 regional markets should have a sustainable, all-be-it temporary bull-run. My aim for DRB should be to reach previous highs, if not higher...considering DRB's  NTA is much higher.

After researching and calculating all warrants related to DRBHICOM, I also found that DRBHCOM-CN to be of reasonable value. It should be a good buy, considering the number of days remaining before expiry. My target for the warrant should be for it to reach at least 12.5 to 15 sen. Closed at 5.5 sen today.

DRBHICOM

News flow has been picking up lately, and huge collections have appeared on tape. 

Facts worth noting about DRB HICOM: 

1. UK govt giving money to DRB to fund Lotus
2. New COO (from Tenaga) is very talented person. Go do your research and dont simply assume what I say
3. Local elections are near, DRB and Tan Sri SM stocks are likely to be played
4. Huge collection of DRB shares lately. Only can detect by reading the tape
5. DRB still cheap, NTA is RM4+ and previous high is 3.20+

Speculations to Consider

Good morning! Hope all of you made money during the past few days. Our local index has reached all time highs and we could jollywell hit 1650 by next week! Here are some buys to consider.

DRBHCOM (enter around 2.60-ish if possible) TP: 4+
BENALEC TP:1.50
MAS (enter below 1.10 if possible) TP: 1.50
CSL  (enter around 1.10) TP:1.50+

GPRO seems to be holding up. Definitely further upsides to look forward to. But beware, it's twin CYBERT just went limit down.

EU and China Cut Interest Rates

Good evening! China once again cut their interest rates by 25 b.p., simultaneously over in Europe, interest rates were cut as well. So, if you are depositing any cash in your bank account, you'll literally receive 0% return. This should encourage more people to go into the stock market to seek for better returns. Even so, this good news (or bad news....many might say) was greeted with slumping precious metals prices, and Dow Jones index. 

In the long run, precious metals would still present a strategic buy. Like they say, "Keep stacking"

On the other hand, prices of Aglobal has remained quite steady and might be an impetus to a spike in price soon. Gpro has been quite promising as well. Till then, happy trading! 

GPRO (Update)

If you have followed my previous "alert" on GPRO, and bought at 13.5 sen onward, you would have gained substantially.

However, all is not lost, as there's still an uptrend tendency at this point. The "person" moving this stock upward is also moving CYBERT upwards. Stay tuned, and have fun trading! 

Aglobal (Update)

Aglobal closed at 13 sen today, further fueling speculations that it is indeed on a downtrend.
Cut loss should be done at 12 sen, should further downtrend prevails. Good luck.

GPRO

Something to monitor. ;) For now, that's all I can say.

Aglobal (Update)

Resistance level has shifted from the previous 10 to 12 sen range, to 12.5 sen-14 sen range.
This should be evidence enough to confirm an uptrend. However, movement next week should determine the trend.

In the short run, resistance is set at 15 sen. Should 15 sen be broken, that should be good news for those taking long positions in this stock.

In the meantime, Gold and Silver prices present a good buying opportunity once again. Stay alert, and have a happy weekend!

Operation Twist

So it's official! More demand for income yielding securities (stocks) should be expected in the near term. On the other hand, this could also spur demand for precious metals (gold and silver)

On the side note, AGLOBAL started to jump in price today! ;) Perfect timing won't you say?

Gamuda (Update)

Finally, Gamuda is done some justice! Today price is up, with strong buy even to closing time.
Expecting a further upside, but buyers beware Gamuda-CS warrants are about to expire and have a calculated 3 to 4 days before it stops trading!

BULLISH on commodities

Increasingly, more and more fund managers are betting for an upward surge in commodities prices due to increased speculation that further quantitative easing is coming!

In that case, stocks should rally too! Keep an alert eye on "consumer products" segment.

DRBHICOM looks like it's ready to rock and roll and could be a good BUY....just wait for the CG warrant to expire!

Greek Elections still result in no clear direction

Prepare for sell-offs! Steer clear of blue chips ;)


Update: Apparently the Pro bail-out clan seems to have a slim lead. Perhaps the market might rally. Next, focus will shift to other EU nations, and the U.S.

Dow's up to 12700

Looks like the market's reacted positively with Dow up to 12700 from the low of 12100 some weeks back. Rebound's on its way. KLSE should react positively with Felda's listing, and we might see it reach 1600.
Time to start shopping.

To watch out!

MAS - Successful debt issue, low oil prices
COASTAL/MAYBULK- Low oil prices
DIALOG- Major developments, just follow news
DRBHCOM- Price has been depressed far too long, More Preve models sold than expected
DIGI, AXIATA, MAXIS

My favourite in these uncertain times would be Telco related companies (such as RA)

Market to Rally?

So, over the weekend, Eurozone finally agrees to lend Spain 100 Billion Euros!
I'm expecting a market rally...perhaps Dow to breach 13,000 once again.

Aglobal (Update 3)

Here's today's update for Aglobal. Seems optimistic to me thus far.
Today also saw (as to my prediction), the rally in Airline, Shipping and Telco stocks.
Hope some of you short term traders made some money. ;)

Aglobal (Update 2)

This should be an interesting perspective. I first posted it in Investlah forum. This chart is constructed based on announcements in Bursa's website. Today Aglobal closed up 0.5sen at 12.5sen. Strong accumulation at 12 and 12.5sen. Market optimism in the markets tonight should play a role in pushing this baby up higher.

FTSE and DJIA Rally

Both the FTSE and Dow Jones rallied today, posting significant gains. Movements are in expectation that further monetary easing will be taking place. For speculators out there, this should be good news if you still have market positions.

In the meantime, Soros increased his gold holdings further. Further quantitative easing with definitely push Gold and Silver prices up higher as investors rush in.

Considering Gold and Silver's safe haven status, further upside is definitely expected, just like I shared before.

Aglobal (Update)

Aglobal opened at 12.5 sen and closed at 12.5 sen. Chart looks good.
Here's an indicator for both White Knight's entry. Both based on Bursa announcements.
More upsides expected if everything reported is true. Shares are currently still being held by both parties.

Prediction Proved True

So, as I believed, Gold bounced back up from the support. Faith is the USD is still shaky, coupled with European problems. In the near term, do not expect Greece to recover. Greece as many would say is in a catch-22 situation:

They cannot service their debt, and because of that, their credit ratings will keep falling (thus increasing interest rates), again completing the circle of them not being able to service their debt. We might need to learn to live with it, as Spain and Italy's turn comes up.

In addition, the bad job figures in the U.S. has resulted in the fall of the Dow Jones to the 12100s (it was back in Dec 2011 that is was that low!)

As the world's major economies slow, oil price will be expected to stay low (unless the event of war!)....and investors not being able to find a sound return for their money will rush into commodities such as Gold and Silver. Either way, commodities is still a safe hedge against inflation, the slowing economy, and the event of war. Unless of course if you believe in the U.S. dollar.
As for Malaysia's situation, growth from the construction sector will still be able to propel our economy.

Strategies to observe:

-Long Gold and Silver
-Buy construction related counters (Gamuda etc)
-Observe Telecommunications stocks (Digi, Maxis, Axiata) and Telecommunications services (R&A berhad)
-Observe Digital services companies (Ariantec Global, Digistar)

Economic Analysis (Mid Year analysis)

As can be seen, oil price has been steadily falling. This may prompt a rally in Airline stocks, Transportation related, and industry related. So, watch out for AirAsia, MAS, Maybulk, Coastal Contracts etc. Be forewarned that an attack on Iran or any rumor may cause investments to be shaky. To trade with caution.

During this turbulent period (euro crisis!), investors rushing for safe haven have prompted a rally in the USD index. This run-up might be short-run only. Remember that the US debt problem is a big big problem. This rally could also be related to the effect of the coming November presidential elections.
Strong USD (good for export), and weak oil (lower cost of production) should prompt a rally in Asian stock market which is mainly export oriented.

As always, I will take Gold as a benchmark. Prices have been trading steadily, showing that investors are very aware of the global economic condition. Therefore, all things withholding, the current rally in USD, and drop in oil prices might just be temporary. I don't forsee investors dumping gold to chase the market, as of now.

-Gold still trading above support line-

To summarize, short term trade can be placed on MAS, AirAsia, Coastal Contracts, Maybulk, and construction related counters (Gamuda, MMC, etc)

Do note that short term means the period between June and August. Conditions may change anytime. However, these companies are currently trading at relatively cheap levels, which should serve to mitigate potential downside risks.  

MK Land

Something to consider. MK Land has improved earnings, and a high NTA. It's also relatively cheap, trading at quite a low as can be seen on the chart.

MACD and RSI seems to be low, and recovering. I'd say this is a safe bet because of the high break-up value of the company, but the stock price might remain stagnant for sometime. Perhaps an investment idea to consider.

As of now, GAMUDA is still trading very stably, and it refuses to trade up. Heavy manipulation going on.
Lets hope once enough collection is done, it will move up to at least 3.80. Might happen in the next couple of days.

Aglobal (Purely Technical Viewpoint)

From a purely technical view point, Aglobal should be a buy now. MACD recovering, RSI at lowest point, and set to recover.

Possibly the best punts you can get

Look out for MMC. It's a relatively good punt with stable price. Do also note that the upcoming listing of Gas Malaysia might prompt a price rally for MMC. Aim for the warrants if you want to leverage gains. Again be mindful that as of this moment, FTSE is down over 100 points.

Gamuda Berhad (Announcement)

Gamuda and MMC finally announced their JV company today. This should spur good news, on top of the big chunk of share acquisitions by EPF lately of these two companies.
Gamuda is trading in range lately, and should be monitored closely to determine the possible trend. There's a tendency for upward bias in this case.

As for RA, it has been trading at the stable region of 8 sen. This is a good price to re-enter.

Risk-off Period (Mid-week Thoughts)

So it seems things are just becoming worst. US dollars continue strengthening, leaving Silver and Gold lagging behind the race. If you are smart, you'd start buying some shiny commodity now perhaps letting up to 10% or 20% of your portfolio be holdings in Gold and Silver. Fundamentally speaking, if Greece does leave EU, the commodity prices should once again spike as more money seek a tangible and safe investment. The US dollar is a not a safe haven. .

One thing should not come as a surprise is Gamuda is down. Recently update announcements show a lot of buying by funds. Infact, today's selling is very light volume. Perhaps done to get panic sellers to dump. Gamuda-WD should be worthwhile to own right now. Again, stay alert to see if Gamuda is still falling. As of now, I think it has hit a support line.

Nevertheless, Gamuda-CS still has a healthy buying appetite at 2 sen.

Another stock to watch out for would be MMC. It has went down, but closed just a mere 3 sen down. Upcoming Gas Malaysia listing should benefit it. MMC, you can either punt the warrants or buy the shares. Most are putting target price at $3.50. Before making your bets, please remember now is risk-off period. Don't bet the boat.

Talking about betting the boat, RA followers, RA's at 8 sen now. Good time to load up and average down. With the telco business booming, there's no indication that results this quarter can be that bad. If it turns out lower than expected, I would continue my buying at a lower price if it drops. If it turns up good, we might see the price once again trading at at least $0.12 to $0.15 range. Though I'm expecting with more news, we can easily see $1.00 soon enough.

Risk-Off Period

Good day all. Hope you survived the onslaught of the market today. 

During this risk-off period, if you are playing the foreign exchange, you probably made tons. Gamuda made it through (up today!) with heavy buying. There's a possibility of the candlesticks breaking the Bollinger band, heading upwards.

On that note of risk-off period, it's time to perhaps long some gold and silver. Till then, stay tuned, and happy speculating!

Penny Stock Summary (11th May 2012)

Good weekend all!

This week I speculated a little into DVM. Particularly tempted due to the announcement that big block of shares has been acquired by an institutional investor/speculator. Whether or not game has ended, am not sure. But I'm already out on the announcement they sold off some shares. 

I also speculated in FOCUS, as I expected some major announcement for the overwhelming trading volume on Thursday. It didnt happen, and price was dropping from weak buying and moderately heavy selling. Sold it today. Price closed at 15 sen. 

Overall, I'm still confident in RA, though it hit a low of 9 sen today. I'm still advocating to collect, and average down if you can. This is by no means watered down confidence in the company. Collecting when the market is overreacting is the best given the current situation. Hold for longer term. Even buy the warrants as it will give tremendous value. Quarterly report will be out this month. So, watch out!

As for Gamuda-CS it fell to 2.5sen, and closed at 3 sen. Still healthy buying, considering it's still cheaply priced compared to other warrants which are close to exercise price. Most are priced at 4 to 5 sen range.
Doing that comparison is of course ain't good enough for me. Anyway, my justification was in previous posts. Construction sector is overweight, and there's active transactions on Gamuda mother shares. Play cautiously.
Good luck! 

DVM

Another short update:

Today Gamuda dropped 3 sen. Again, big blocks of shares exchanging hands before market closed. Doesn't seem like sell-down activity. Primarily because big buy queues suddenly appeared to take up the sell order.

On the other hand, DVM seems to continue to have buying interests. It was reported that Citigroup bought 10 mil shares a couple days ago? Watch closely for possible speculative activities.

Speculative Penny Stocks

Short update:

Today, Gamuda-CS was actively traded once again, together with the Gamuda mother share. Before close, a big sell queue of 1 million shares was placed. We shall see more tomorrow.

In the meantime, I shall recommend Dvm, Extol and Vis be looked into. All these are cheap penny stocks with recent announcements and developments.

Gamuda-CS (part 2 update)

Continued update on Gamuda-CS,

Price has since went up from 3 to 4 sen. (up 33%). You can continue loading up, or choose to watch. Either way, remember to manage your risks.

The chart shows the mother shares (GAMUDA) and possible upward momentum signals. 

Also, if you track latest news, 

April 24th 2012 

MMC Gamuda to buy six boring machines for RM360mil

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/4/24/business/11159537&sec=business

May 4th 2012

Pasar Seni MRT station gets rolling

http://www.nst.com.my/streets/central/pasar-seni-mrt-station-gets-rolling-1.80622

I'm expecting more news to come so solidify Gamuda's upward trend. Stay tuned. 

Gamuda CS / Gamuda

Good day.

Let me bring your attention to Gamuda. As you might know, Gamuda and MMC has received contracts worth almost RM 9 billion and the price has yet to reflect fairly. On the day of the announcement, the price did spike, but the following day it again went down. There's obvious price manipulation here. Anyhow, I'm expecting Gamuda to go up, as Research houses are recommending a buy. This is followed by substantial buying from EPF (Employee Provident Fund).




The chart shows a previous high of 3.90 which will be the resistance line. After that is broken, it should reach for 4.20. Conservative investors should stop here. If you are a speculator, consider buying Gamuda-CS, a warrant which is bank issued. Exercise price is 3.60. As of today, the mother share closed at 3.60.
The warrant itself is selling at 3 sen, which is at a substantial discount compared to other warrants in the market.




Should Gamuda reach the target price of 4.20, this should easily value Gamuda-CS at 12 sen +/-
Again, speculate wisely.

Investing in Silver

If you're looking for conventional recommendations, please do not look here. I can easily recommend blue chip counters that can give you 10 to 20 percent return easily. Don't get me wrong, but that's not called speculating anymore in my dictionary. Today, I'd like to shift focus to commodities. The commodity in focus is Silver. That's right, Argentum (Ag). 

If you follow the prices as closely as I have done, you should notice that Silver price moves in tandem with Gold price. 

Why you should buy Silver?

1. At its current price ($32 per ounce) it's still selling at a significant discount compared to prices of 1980s ($50 per ounce). If you factor in the depreciation of the value of the US dollar and our paper money, it should be much more in value. 

2. Silver has historically been sold at a 1:15 ratio to Gold's prices. At Gold's current price ($1650), Silver should sell at $110 per ounce. 

Finally, I'd wish for my readers to check this out. There's many resources around the web, but I find this the most accurate thus far. Happy weekend :)

RA (R & A Telecommunications Berhad)

Let me start by saying that my first recommendation would not be of speculative nature.
Let's take a look at R&A Telecommunications Berhad (RA).

Taking a look at RA's previous high, it is obvious there are plenty of upsides to it, from TA (Technical Analysis) point of view. If you take a closer look,

The "red" circle shows that MACD and MFI (Money Flow Index) is recovering. MFI is a better technical indicator compared to RSI in many cases, but that's a discussion for another time. So, from TA point of view, RA is a BUY.

From Fundamental Analysis (FA) perspective, it is worth noting that the company's profits have increased on an unprecedented trajectory.

Revenues 2011 versus 2010 was RM40.16mil  VS RM2.25mil
Net profit was RM8.116mil VS RM114,000 (increased over 7000%!!!!!)
So, is it a buy? I think it is. What say you?

Okay, let's not just stop at it, let us estimate the potential target price for this stock, shall we?

The total estimated market size for Telecommunications infrastructure and services in Malaysia is about RM4billion per year. If you google for recent write ups about R&A (there aren't many), they have talked about aiming for RM1billion in revenue in the next few years (25% of the market is not impossible, considering there aren't many competitors!)

The current RA net profit margin stands at about 20% of total revenues. Let's just say RA hits just RM500 million in revenues in 3 years time. And for discussion's sake, we take it that their net profit margin is 10% only. That's RM50 million in PAT (profit after tax)

Divided by 878 mil shares outstanding + 10% (of warrants) = 968 mil shares (if warrants converted)
That should bring RA's EPS (earning per share) to 5.16 cents. Apply a moderate P/E ratio of 10, should see the stock be valued at least 52 cents.

My target however, should see the stock trading at least around RM1.00

Finally, be reminded that telecommunications should see a spike in growth, and companies like DIGI, AXIATA, and MAXIS shall need to constantly upgrade their infrastructure because the industry is currently being driven by growth in data demand. Everyone's getting smartphones and the data demand is sure to surge. Invest in the company in which the products or services you use. A useful investment advice by Peter Lynch. I'm expecting RA to ride the high waves along with DIGI, AXIATA, and MAXIS. Not everyday you will come across such a chance in a lifetime! Ready to retire?

RA currently trades at 10 to 10.5 sen range.

Speculation Today: Introduction

Speculation today is intended to be the right site to go to for insights meant for contrarian speculators of stocks. Discussion will mostly revolve surrounding Malaysian listed stocks, with emphasis on current world market conditions, commodity prices and many other interrelated factors. Stay tuned.